The Big Bet

“In The Big Bet, Michael Auerbach explores the past, present, and future of the prediction market…. This is a dazzling and entertaining book…. But it is also an urgent warning about what we might gamble away if we become a society that wagers on everything.” —Patrick Radden Keefe, author of Empire of Pain 

In recent years, prediction markets have swept the world, fundamentally changing the nature of gambling and making their youthful pioneers billionaires. Quickly outpacing traditional political polling in accuracy, these markets have made headlines for portending shocking events—from Donald Trump’s 2024 victory over Kamala Harris to the capture of Nicolas Maduro. But are these markets really a new phenomenon? And what does it mean when those tasked with safeguarding democracy hold financial stakes in its volatility? 

From wagers on papal conclaves in Renaissance Rome to the Pentagon’s ill-fated terrorism futures exchange to blockchain-based betting on Polymarket today, The Big Bet tells the gripping five-hundred-year story of this unregulated, multibillion dollar industry. Drawing on deep expertise, Michael Auerbach examines how these markets are changing our world and what they mean for the future of our democratic self-governance. 

As Auerbach shows, prediction markets are not an anomaly—they are the logical endpoint of a society that applies market capitalism to every aspect of life. Facing a world where everything is a wager and nothing is off limits, The Big Bet urges us to ask: What happens when democracy becomes another commodity?

• “Michael Auerbach has one of the most original minds I’ve ever encountered—and an uncanny instinct for what’s coming next. In The Big Bet, he explores the past, present, and future of the prediction market, a phenomenon that is reshaping our world in real time, and in startling ways. This is a dazzling and entertaining book, full of keen insights and arresting anecdotes. But it is also an urgent warning about what we might gamble away if we become a society that wagers on everything. Democracy itself is at stake.”
  Patrick Radden Keefe, New York Times bestselling author of Say Nothing and Empire of Pain
• “Every generation or so, the world experiences a moment where one can see exactly where the bus is headed and nobody will touch the wheel. This is one of those moments. Michael Auerbach has written the most honest account of where prediction markets are taking us. The Big Bet is brilliant, troubling, and almost impossible to put down.”
  Scott Galloway, #1 New York Times bestselling author of The Algebra of Wealth and Notes on Being a Man
• “Will The Big Bet become essential reading on prediction markets? This market resolved to YES. Michael Auerbach’s book is a history lesson and an overview of the state of play, but also a forewarning of a future rife with insider trading and corruption. I got an early copy because Michael is my friend, so I knew it was good. I cleaned up.”
  Matt Stone, cocreator of South Park